Crime Isn't Down: Politicians are Just Manipulating the Stats

In recent public discourse, there is a growing trend of political figures and law enforcement authorities heralding a decline in crime rates. These declarations, often bolstered by statistical evidence, aim to reassure communities and validate the effectiveness of recent policies or law enforcement strategies. However, the simplicity of such narratives belies a more complex reality concerning the accuracy and completeness of crime data reporting.

This article intends to peel back the layers of crime statistics to explore the underlying factors that influence these figures. It scrutinizes how variables such as police staffing levels, citizen reporting habits, and how police leaders are outright manipulating crime reporting that might distort the perceived trends in crime. Through a critical examination of these elements, the discussion will illuminate the nuances and challenges inherent in interpreting crime rates.

Impact of Police Staffing Levels on Crime Reporting

The capacity of police departments to effectively respond to and document crime incidents is critically dependent on adequate staffing levels. Recent trends in reduced force sizes pose significant challenges, affecting not only the immediacy of police response but also the thoroughness of crime investigation and documentation. With fewer officers available, the prioritization of incidents becomes a necessity, often leading to delays in responding to lower-priority calls. This situation can discourage the public from reporting crimes, anticipating long wait times or doubting the likelihood of a substantive law enforcement response.

Furthermore, the reduction in personnel impacts the quality and completeness of crime data collected. Officers overwhelmed by high-priority demands may have limited capacity to document incidents comprehensively. This can result in underreported crime statistics, as less severe incidents might be recorded with less detail or, in some cases, not reported at all. The consequence is a skewed portrayal of crime rates, potentially masking the true extent of certain types of crime within communities. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing the reliability of crime data and the effectiveness of strategies purported to reduce crime rates.

Politicians Touting Reduced Murder Rates

A common point of pride among politicians is the reported decline in murder rates. This decrease is often attributed to effective crime prevention and reduction strategies. However, this interpretation overlooks a significant factor: medical advancements. The past decade has seen remarkable progress in emergency and trauma medicine, improving survival rates for victims of violent crimes. As a result, incidents that might have been fatal years ago are now survivable, thanks to these medical improvements.

This shift raises questions about the true nature of violence reduction. While lower murder rates are celebrated, it's crucial to distinguish between a genuine decrease in violent behavior and the increased capacity to save lives. The reliance on murder rates as a metric for violence in society may, therefore, be misleading. A more accurate assessment of violence levels would consider both the number of violent incidents and the outcomes of those incidents, including how often medical intervention alters potential fatalities. This perspective provides a fuller understanding of the challenges in measuring and interpreting changes in societal violence.

Citizen Reporting Behaviors

The dynamics of crime reporting by citizens are influenced by several key factors, including perceptions of police responsiveness and the adoption of online reporting mechanisms. A prevailing concern among the public is the efficiency and effectiveness of law enforcement responses to reported crimes. When citizens perceive that their reports will not be acted upon promptly or taken seriously, their inclination to report incidents diminishes. This perception can stem from direct experiences or community sentiment, leading to a hesitancy that directly impacts crime statistics.

A good example is San Francisco. Their leadership is touting that retail crime is down. However, many retailers have left the city, so the pool of victims is reduced. Many retailers don’t call the police when there is a theft, knowing that there is no prosecution or a very delayed police response for a crime that is petty in a city inundated with drugs and violence.

Additionally, the shift towards online reporting platforms, while intended to streamline the reporting process and make it more accessible, may inadvertently contribute to underreporting. Some individuals may prefer direct interaction with officers or find online systems impersonal or complicated, deterring them from filing reports. This shift, coupled with the digital divide in access to technology, means that certain demographics might be less represented in crime data. Together, these factors result in a significant underreporting of crime, skewing public and policymaker understanding of crime trends and necessitating a reevaluation of how crime data is collected and interpreted.

Prioritization and 'Kissing Off' Reports

In the demanding environment of law enforcement, officers often face the challenging task of managing high caseloads with finite resources. This scenario necessitates a prioritization process, where incidents deemed more severe are addressed first. While this approach is practical and aims to allocate resources efficiently, it can inadvertently influence the reporting and documentation of less severe incidents. Officers, striving to manage their workload effectively, might guide citizens towards alternative reporting methods for minor incidents, aiming to ensure that urgent cases receive immediate attention.

This practical approach to law enforcement, driven by the necessity to prioritize, does not diminish the commitment of officers to public safety but rather highlights the constraints under which they operate. However, it may lead to an underrepresentation of certain types of crimes in official statistics. As more officers leave law enforcement due to a lack of political and public support, their positions remain vacant. With less officers on the street, many crimes slip through the cracks. Meanwhile, politicians run in front of the press claiming a win against crime.

Police Leaders Manipulate the Data

For most of my career, I had issues with my agency’s reported crime stats. Some years, under some leaders, the crime rate appeared to be artificially low. Towards the end of my career, I was tasked with completing my agency’s annual report. The crime stats I was given were wrong. They grossly underreported murders and rapes. After a short investigation, I found that my agency was using loopholes in FBI reporting to skirt reporting some crimes. As an example, under FBI rules, if there was a rape and murder, they only need to report the murder. Since most crimes involved more than one offense, many offenses weren’t getting reported. That’s on top of just outright cooking the books.

I teach cops all over the country. I started asking them if their agency cooked the books. It was the rare event that I found someone that said they didn’t see any manipulation of crime stats. It’s unfortunate that the people that are honest and would not participate in this evil effort would never get promoted because they, “Aren’t a team player.”

As this narrative unfolds, it's clear that the conversation surrounding crime rates and their reporting is not merely about numbers on a page—it's about the intricate dance between perception, reality, and the mechanisms that capture them. Many of you are asking what can you do to seek the truth. The first start is to support the men and women of law enforcement. Many are leaving because of a real issue of a lack of support from the public and the political elite. You can also help by holding police leaders accountable when they present crime stats. Ask tough questions, do freedom of information act requests to seek the truth about what is really happening. As we leave here, don’t be mad at the cop answering 911 calls. He is overburdened, tired and feeling down about what is occurring. Lift them up, instead, and encourage them with kind words and deeds.